From the economic agreement between Kosovo and Serbia to Israel’s recognition and political disputes – these were defining aspects of Kosovo’s relationship with the previous U.S. administration under Donald Trump, from 2016 to 2020.
Now, with Trump winning a second term, political analysts in Kosovo and abroad hold differing views on the potential impact of his administration on Kosovo.
Afrim Hoti, a professor of Law and International Relations at the University of Pristina, is optimistic, calling Trump’s return “a positive opportunity for Kosovo and the region.”
On the other hand, Toby Vogel, from the Berlin-based Democratization Policy Council, expressed skepticism, asserting that “not a single positive thing” could come from Trump’s re-election for the Balkans.
Economic Normalization and Political Conflicts
During his first term, Trump’s administration focused on what it called the “economic normalization” of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. The main objective was to prioritize the economic benefits for citizens, aiming to reduce political tensions in the region.
Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, played a crucial role, stressing that the absence of such an agreement hindered both countries’ economic growth and foreign investment.
While Trump was in office, Kosovo experienced three changes in leadership: Ramush Haradinaj from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Albin Kurti from the Self-Determination Movement, and Avdullah Hoti from the Democratic League of Kosovo.
One of the significant moments of the Trump administration’s mediation occurred on September 4, 2020, when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and then-Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti signed the Agreement on Economic Normalization at the White House.
The agreement included major infrastructure projects, like the “Peace Highway” linking Pristina to Merdare and a railway line along the same route, intended to ease movement and trade between Kosovo and Serbia. Although the highway project continued on both sides, it remains incomplete.
Another critical element was the feasibility study for the Ujman Lake, a shared water resource between Kosovo and Serbia. The U.S. completed this study in June 2021, suggesting a joint management model. Grenell even proposed renaming it “Trump Lake,” a suggestion supported by Hoti and Serbian officials but met with mixed reactions from the public.
Additionally, Grenell brokered an agreement in January 2020 between Kosovo, Serbia, and German airline Lufthansa to establish a direct flight route between Pristina and Belgrade. Trump hailed this as “another victory,” though the route has yet to materialize.
Through Trump’s mediation, Kosovo also gained recognition from Israel. In contrast, the Trump administration and especially Grenell, had a strained relationship with Albin Kurti. When Kurti took office for the first time in early 2020, he frequently clashed with Grenell, who publicly criticized Kurti, labeling him “anti-American” and accusing him of opposing U.S. policies under former presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump.
The tensions reached a peak in March 2020 when Kurti’s government was toppled by a vote of no confidence, which Kurti claimed was orchestrated with Grenell’s support. One of the points of contention was a 100% tariff on Serbian goods imposed by the Haradinaj government in 2018. Grenell reportedly pressured Kurti to lift the tariff without reciprocal measures, a demand Kurti strongly resisted.
Kurti also accused Grenell of directly interfering in Kosovo’s political crisis, claiming he proposed a territorial exchange deal with Serbia, which Kurti argued “could not be a peace agreement.” Grenell, however, described Kurti as a “problem” and defended his approach as essential for advancing U.S. interests in the Balkans.
Even after Trump’s first term ended, Grenell’s criticism of Kurti continued. In summer 2023, Grenell commented on Kurti’s actions in northern Kosovo, particularly in the Serb-majority municipalities, calling them destabilizing for the region. The current U.S. administration under President Joe Biden has also criticized some of Kurti’s unilateral actions, especially in northern Kosovo, deeming them detrimental to relations with Washington.
Despite this, Prime Minister Kurti congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing optimism about “working together for progress and peace.” Kosovo’s opposition leaders also extended their congratulations following Trump’s victory in the November 5 election.
Second Term: “A Positive or Very Negative Impact”
In an interview with Radio Free Europe, Professor Afrim Hoti from the University of Pristina sees Trump’s re-election as a positive development for Kosovo and the Balkans. Hoti believes that Trump’s administration could bring renewed energy to U.S.-Kosovo relations and the region.
“I believe that Kosovo’s leaders must recognize that who leads the White House is of little importance. Our institutions have maintained close ties with U.S. administrations regardless of party lines,” said Hoti.
He also suggests Kosovo should strengthen its lobbying efforts in the U.S., as he notes an increase in Serbia’s lobbying activities.
“Things have changed, and Serbs are on the offensive, lobbying intensively. Our institutions must be aware of these developments and reposition themselves accordingly,” added Hoti.
Conversely, Toby Vogel predicts that the Balkans will not be a priority in Trump’s agenda, but he believes any impact from his administration in the region “will not be positive.” He specifically warns of a potential revival of the “territorial exchange” scheme, where Serbia might annex northern Kosovo, a scenario he believes cannot end peacefully.
“Europeans are unwilling to oppose this – in fact, the last time this idea was seriously discussed, it was initiated by then-EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and later adopted by Trump’s administration,” Vogel stated.
Furthermore, he cautioned that both Prime Minister Kurti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic might attempt to “create facts on the ground,” particularly in northern Kosovo, and that Kurti “may feel compelled to act before Trump’s inauguration and Kosovo’s February elections.”
Northern Kosovo, home to a majority Serb population, has long been a hotspot for tension, as its residents oppose Kosovo’s independence. In a recent armed attack in September 2023, a Kosovo police officer was killed, escalating tensions.
Nevertheless, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was among the first regional leaders to congratulate Trump, and Serbian citizens in northern Kosovo celebrated his election win.
While opinions remain divided on how Trump’s second term will influence the delicate dynamics in the Balkans, one thing is clear: both Kosovo and Serbia will face a renewed set of challenges and opportunities that will test their commitment to lasting peace and regional stability. As Kosovo’s leadership looks ahead, balancing diplomatic efforts with a focus on internal cohesion may prove crucial to navigating this new chapter in U.S.-Balkan relations. As always, the region will be closely watched, both by its neighbors and the international community, as it seeks a future marked by progress rather than division.