The eurozone economy emerged stronger than expected in the second quarter of 2026, at least in the preliminary figures. But behind the 0.4% result lies a more complex picture: growth is coming at a time when energy prices are once again exerting pressure and the conflict in the Middle East continues to keep risks open for the months ahead.
Growth above market forecasts
According to preliminary Eurostat data, the gross domestic product of the eurozone’s 21 countries grew by 0.4% in the April-June period.
This result comes after the bloc’s economy had recorded no growth in the first quarter. The figure is also above the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who had forecast an expansion of 0.2%.
The weight of major economies and Ireland’s role
Growth was supported by the positive performance of the bloc’s largest economies. Germany and France each expanded by 0.2%, while Italy also recorded growth of 0.2%.
Spain stood out with growth of 0.7%, helped by strong tourism performance. Ireland also made a noticeable contribution, expanding by 3.9% after a sharp contraction in the first quarter.
Energy and the Middle East keep risks alive
The figures suggest that the eurozone has weathered the energy shock and the uncertainties linked to the war in the Middle East better than expected.
However, the pressure has not disappeared. Brent crude has climbed back above $92 per barrel after the ceasefire broke down, a development that could fuel higher costs and further complicate the balance of European economies.
ECB holds rates, but the outlook remains uncertain
The European Central Bank has kept its key interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, while it assesses the impact the war could have on inflation and economic growth.
According to the ECB’s forecasts, the eurozone economy is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and by 1.2% in 2027. Despite this, the outlook remains fragile because of energy prices, inflation continuing to stay above the 2% target, and further developments in the Middle East.
Second-quarter growth gives the eurozone some breathing room that was missing at the start of the year, but not necessarily long-term certainty.
If energy continues to become more expensive and geopolitical tensions escalate, this performance may prove to be more of a temporary display of resilience than a sustainable turning point.