Two of the most sensitive hubs of global trade are simultaneously facing strong tensions, raising fears of new blows to maritime transport and energy supplies. The strongest signs are coming from the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic by large vessels has shrunk to alarming levels, and from Bab el-Mandeb, where the presence of the Houthis near Perim Island is increasing risk costs even without a formal closure of the route.
Hormuz, the hardest blow to maritime traffic
In the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important corridors for oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf, daily crossings by large commercial ships have fallen sharply. On Thursday, only 7 crossings were recorded, down from about 125 a day before the war began.
This decline reflects not just political tension, but a real disruption in the pace of movement at a key point for global energy supplies. For markets and maritime operators, the signal is clear: uncertainty is no longer remaining only at the level of statements.
Bab el-Mandeb remains open, but the risk is rising
Around 2,000 kilometers farther west, Houthi rebels have expanded their presence along Yemen’s coast and reached the strategic island of Perim, in the heart of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Perim’s position carries great weight because it controls one of the most sensitive points of the corridor linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and then, through the Suez Canal, to trade between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
However, according to the reported data, Bab el-Mandeb is not currently closed to commercial traffic. On Thursday, 26 commercial ships passed through it, close to the average of 27 ships a day over the past 10 days.
Insurers and companies are calculating the most expensive scenario
The main concern is not only whether the route is open today, but the cost of risk, which can change from one day to the next. The presence of the Houthis on Perim could affect ship insurance, crew safety and diversion decisions if the situation escalates.
For shipping companies, even without an official closure of the corridor, a rise in the threat level is enough to produce higher costs and delays in the supply chain.
Saudi Arabia faces double pressure
Restricted traffic in Hormuz gives greater weight to alternative routes for transporting oil toward the coasts of the Red Sea. That makes any military movement around Bab el-Mandeb even more sensitive.
At the same time, according to the official version of the authorities of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, a counteroffensive is being prepared to retake lost territories. The clash, according to reports, is also affecting relations between Riyadh and Washington.
Two crises at the same time, consequences for all trade
The most problematic scenario for global trade is not only what is happening in each strait separately, but the combination of both crises at the same time. Hormuz is experiencing a drastic drop in traffic, while Bab el-Mandeb is coming under new military pressure.
If tensions deepen, companies may be forced to avoid Bab el-Mandeb and use the much longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. Such a shift would mean more time at sea, higher insurance premiums and additional costs for international transport.
In practice, global trade is facing a serious warning: two strategic Middle East corridors are simultaneously entering a phase of pressure that could affect energy, prices and the pace of international supply.
Even when a route remains technically open, it is enough for the risk to be perceived as high to shake the entire maritime movement system.