The election in Saxony-Anhalt is being watched as a major test of Germany’s political balance. According to the latest polls, AfD is expected to emerge as the leading force with a strong lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, a signal that could deepen the crisis of confidence in traditional parties.
Polls put AfD far ahead
According to the latest poll by public broadcaster ZDF, Alternative for Germany is running at around 41% of the vote in this eastern German state. Friedrich Merz’s CDU is projected much further behind, at 23%.
Die Linke is estimated at 11.5%, the Social Democrats at 8.5% and the Greens at 6%. Two other parties, according to these projections, remain below the 5% threshold and risk being left out of the state parliament.
A direct test for Merz and the federal government
The vote is widely seen as a political test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A heavy result in AfD’s favor would add pressure on the federal government at a time when criticism over the economy and the handling of public discontent has not faded.
AfD has benefited politically from dissatisfaction over the economy, migration and the policies of the central government. That is also the picture reflected in polling dynamics, where the party has moved ahead of the CDU not only in this state, but also in several national surveys.
An absolute majority would open a historic scenario
Around 1.7 million citizens are eligible to vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Polling stations opened at 08:00 and close at 18:00, while exit polls are expected to provide the first picture of the result immediately after polls close.
If AfD secures an absolute majority, it would for the first time have the opportunity to form a state government. For postwar German politics, this would be a development of particular significance, beyond the borders of this state.
Political isolation remains the main obstacle
Even in the event of a convincing victory, power is not automatic. Germany’s main parties have refused cooperation with AfD, maintaining the so-called “Brandmauer,” or the line against entering a coalition with the far right.
The weight of this political isolation remains decisive, especially after AfD’s branch in Saxony-Anhalt was classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence authority. The CDU, which currently governs the state, is considering the possibility of a coalition with several parties to remain in power, despite the large gap in the polls.
AfD’s candidate and his hardline platform
The leading AfD figure in this election is 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, who has also become known through social media, especially on TikTok. He has said he would take over leadership of the state only if his party secures an absolute majority, ruling out a coalition with other forces.
The platform he is presenting is based on tougher migration policies, including what he calls “remigration” and deportations. The program also includes banning rainbow flags in schools, limiting the construction of new wind parks and symbolic changes to the identity of the state.
If the polling trend is translated into votes, Saxony-Anhalt could become the point where tensions between traditional parties and the far right enter a new phase.
Beyond the local result, the real significance of this race is tied to the bigger question weighing on Berlin: how much further AfD’s rise can go, and what political cost this will have for Germany’s center.