Early exit polls in Saxony-Anhalt signal a major political shock in Germany. According to ARD’s projection, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading with 44.5%, while the CDU, politically associated with Friedrich Merz, is projected at just 18.5%, a steep decline compared with the previous election.
AfD clearly comes out on top
According to the first post-vote poll, AfD is the leading force with a wide advantage over its rivals. The 44.5% figure puts the far-right party well ahead of the traditional conservative bloc.
If this projection is confirmed in the count, it would mark one of the strongest signals yet of AfD’s growth in a German state, bringing the party into a zone of influence that until a few years ago seemed politically out of reach.
CDU’s decline deepens pressure on the traditional center
The CDU is projected to win 18.5%, losing around half of its strength compared with the 2021 election. For the conservative camp, this is more than an electoral setback: it is a direct blow to its weight in one of the most sensitive regional tests.
Behind the CDU, the other forces remain below 10%: The Left at 9.5%, the Greens at 9%, and the SPD at 8%, with relatively more limited fluctuations. The fragmented vote makes building a majority even more uncertain.
Seat math offers no easy solution
Based on the same exit poll, AfD is estimated to win 39 seats in the local parliament, the CDU 16, The Left 8, the Greens 7, the SPD 7 and BSW 5 seats.
At least 42 of the 83 seats are needed to secure a majority. This means that even though AfD comes very close to full control, the projection does not automatically put it in a position to govern alone. This is precisely where political attention is expected to focus until the final result is fully closed.
A serious precedent for German politics
Compared with the 2021 election, AfD has almost doubled its result with an increase of 23.7 percentage points, while the CDU has lost 18.6 points. Losses for The Left and the SPD appear more limited.
According to this projection, this is the first time a far-right party has come so close to forming a government in a German state. That makes the result not only a regional development, but a broader political alarm for the balance of power in Germany.
Until the end of election night, the central question remains whether AfD will or will not manage to cross the threshold that would give it more direct control over local governance.
For now, the projections show a strong shift in the electorate and a clear weakening of the traditional parties in Saxony-Anhalt.