Parliament is expected to begin discussing the Socialist project for a new territorial division, an initiative that is likely to pass because of the governing majority’s numbers. Beyond the administrative map, the move also carries direct electoral weight: a published poll covering seven municipalities set to expand seeks to offer a preliminary picture of where the votes of the new residents who will be added to these units may go.
A project with political impact, not simply administrative
Under the project presented by the Socialists, 15 small municipalities will be merged into neighboring municipalities. With the current balance of forces in Parliament, approval of this scheme appears possible, turning the debate from a technical issue into an intervention with clear political consequences.
When local boundaries are changed shortly before electoral cycles, the main question is not only how the territories will be administered, but also whom the reconfiguration of the voting map specifically serves. That is precisely what the poll in question seeks to measure.
How the poll was conducted
According to the author of the analysis, the questionnaire was distributed by SMS randomly and proportionally in seven large municipalities expected to expand. The two main questions were whether citizens would vote in the municipal elections and which candidate they would vote for if they took part.
The calculations were combined with INSTAT data on the adult population in each municipality to create a statistical extrapolation. The nature of this method itself requires caution in reading the findings, as this is a preliminary projection and not a consolidated electoral result.
First figures: an advantage for the Socialists in most municipalities
The published extrapolation shows that around 208,000 adult residents in the seven municipalities under review are already decided to vote for Socialist mayoral candidates. Around 131,000 are projected as voters for opposition candidates, about 35,000 remain undecided, while approximately 183,000 say they do not want to vote at all.
If read as a trend rather than a conclusion, these data suggest that the expansion of municipalities may not produce major political shocks in most cases. According to the analysis, the Socialist Party’s advantage in several of these municipalities remains deep even after the electorate is enlarged.
Only Kavaja emerges as a hotspot
According to the conclusion drawn by the analysis for each municipality, only the expanded Municipality of Kavaja, which will be merged with Rrogozhina, appears to be a potentially close contest. In the other expanded municipalities, the picture is seen as clearly more favorable to the Socialists.
This is the most political element of the entire statistical exercise: the new territorial division does not appear to create new competition on a broad scale, but rather consolidates existing advantages, with Kavaja as the possible exception.
An open factor that could change the calculations
At the end of the analysis, a political reservation is also raised: if the leaders of the boulevard protest put forward candidates for mayor, the above scenario could change. This means that the undecided segment and the share that today remains outside the vote could significantly affect the balance.
For now, the debate over the territorial division is not being conducted only as a matter of local governance. It is increasingly being read as a test of how the majority is trying to reshape the electoral field ahead of local contests.
At this stage, the main message emerging from the figures is clear: the project to expand municipalities is not seen simply as an administrative redesign, but as a move with a direct effect on local political balances.
And if Parliament passes this scheme with the votes of the majority, the real battle will begin over how the new map is translated into actual votes.