The debate over the new territorial division has been accompanied by claims of a political cost for the Socialist Party, especially after objections voiced by part of the municipal councils in the smaller units affected by the mergers. But when the figures from the latest local elections are examined, the picture appears less dramatic than the political rhetoric: in most of the expanded municipalities, the socialists retain a statistical advantage, while only in a few cases do they truly start out on uncertain ground.
Clear advantage in several key municipalities
Data from the latest local elections show that in the expanded municipality of Fier, Socialist Party candidates received a total of 43,527 votes, compared with 21,624 for the opposition. The gap of 21,903 votes places this municipality among the cases where the electoral blow from the territorial merger, at least on paper, appears limited.
The same trend appears in Vlora, where the Socialist Party collected 33,354 votes against 15,330 for the opposition, with a lead of 18,024 votes. In Lushnja as well, the socialists stood at 31,772 votes against 15,330 for their rivals, maintaining a gap of 11,459 votes.
Librazhd, Gjirokastra, Mat and Permet also fall into the same category. In these expanded municipalities, the vote balance from the latest elections suggests that the Socialist Party enters the race with a consolidated base, despite the local dissatisfaction brought by the territorial revision.
Elbasan, Berat and Korça: An advantage on paper, but not without risk
There are also municipalities where the lead remains, but does not look as comfortable as in the cases above. In Elbasan, the Socialist Party received 49,140 votes against 35,888 for the opposition, with a difference of 13,252 votes. At first glance this is a clear lead, but not deep enough to remove all uncertainty if there are real shifts in the electorate.
In Berat, the latest figures give 26,138 votes to the Socialist Party and 17,012 to the opposition, a difference of 9,126 votes. However, because of the weight of the units being added to this municipality, the political balance could become more fragile than the overall number suggests.
In Korça, the socialists received 34,621 votes, while the opposition got 15,001. The gap is significant, but the scale of the administrative reorganization makes this one of the cases where a simple reading of the figures is not enough to rule out political impact on the ground.
Tepelena and Kavaja, where the race narrows sharply
In Tepelena, the vote ratio from the latest elections is 6,794 for the Socialist Party and 3,875 for the opposition. The difference of 2,919 votes keeps the majority ahead, but not in a zone of political comfort, especially if local dissatisfaction translates into non-participation or a shift in votes.
Kavaja appears even more problematic for the Socialist Party. According to the latest figures, the opposition received 16,877 votes, while Socialist Party candidates got 16,043. This means that in the expanded municipality, the Socialist Party enters not with an advantage, but with a deficit of 834 votes, turning the race into a real challenge and not simply a theoretical debate over the territorial division.
Puka remains the most difficult case for the socialists
Among the 13 municipalities analyzed, Puka emerges as the clearest case where the new territorial division does not favor the socialists. In the latest municipal elections, Socialist Party candidates received a total of 4,379 votes, while the opposition got 6,173.
This leaves the Socialist Party at a disadvantage of 1,794 votes in the expanded municipality of Puka. In this case, unlike municipalities where the majority retains a statistical lead even after the merger, the result shows that the political cost may not be merely a matter of perception, but a concrete electoral problem.
If the political debate has been fueled by the idea that the merger of 15 small municipalities would bring the Socialist Party a heavy electoral bill, the figures do not support that conclusion in a linear way.
The picture that emerges from the 13 expanded municipalities is more mixed: in some areas the Socialist Party appears protected by a numerical advantage, while in others, such as Kavaja and Puka, the territorial reorganization could turn into a real political cost. That makes the debate less propagandistic and more a matter of electoral arithmetic.