AfD’s electoral triumph in Saxony-Anhalt has not resolved the question of power, but has made the political crisis even more visible. The far-right party finished well ahead of its rivals with about 44% of the vote, but remained below the threshold for an absolute majority, opening a complicated battle over the regional government and confronting the CDU with choices it until recently considered unacceptable.
A clear victory for AfD, but not enough to govern alone
According to projections and reported results after the vote, AfD secured about 44.5% of the vote in the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double its result in 2021.
In the regional parliament, this translates into 39 of 83 seats. An absolute majority requires 42, which means that despite its big victory, the party cannot form a government on its own.
Turnout above 76% shows the high level of polarization in this race, where the vote appears to have gone more toward solid blocs than toward the traditional political center.
CDU drops sharply as parliamentary arithmetic becomes harder
The CDU suffered a sharp decline, falling to about 17-18%, down from the 37.1% it won in the previous election. The SPD, the Greens and the Left each took about 9%, while BSW passed the threshold and entered parliament with four deputies.
The current CDU-SPD-FDP coalition cannot continue, as the FDP remained outside parliament. Even a formula involving the CDU, SPD and the Greens does not produce a majority.
Even if the Left were added to that arrangement, the four parties would reach only 40 seats, two fewer than needed to control a parliamentary majority.
BSW emerges as the new hinge of power
Numerically, an agreement between AfD and BSW would yield 43 seats, giving the majority needed to govern. Politically, however, this remains far from a certain formula.
There are deep differences between the two parties, even though on some issues, especially toward Russia and the war in Ukraine, similar positions have been noted. So far, BSW leaders have avoided committing to a formal coalition with AfD, while leaving open only case-by-case cooperation.
On AfD’s side, regional leader Ulrich Sigmund has signaled that the party does not intend to soften its main lines simply to secure partners, also mentioning the possibility of new elections if the deadlock continues.
The “Brandmauer” put to the test as Merz faces political consequences
The greatest pressure falls on the CDU. A coalition with AfD would secure 55 seats and a comfortable majority, but it would overturn the so-called “Brandmauer,” the political line of Germany’s traditional parties not to cooperate with AfD.
The CDU also has a resolution barring cooperation with both AfD and the Left. This narrows the party’s political room for maneuver and pushes it toward unstable scenarios, such as a minority government that would survive on partial support from case to case.
The loss in Saxony-Anhalt has opened another front as well: the position of Friedrich Merz. Within the CDU, debates have intensified over the party’s direction and his ability to lead it into the next federal elections, even though leaders of the CDU/CSU bloc have publicly ruled out the scenario of the chancellor’s resignation.
International echo and a signal for the next elections
The result has triggered reactions outside Germany as well. Donald Trump commented on it on social media, while Elon Musk congratulated Alice Weidel and AfD. On the other side, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and other European officials have viewed the result as a political alarm.
From Austria, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl welcomed the result, presenting it as the collapse of political barriers against AfD.
The weight of this vote does not remain only at the regional level. With the September 20 elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where AfD is also showing strength, Saxony-Anhalt is being seen as a serious test for the future balance of German politics.
AfD is closer than ever to entering the government of a German state, but still without a secure partner. It is precisely this contrast between electoral victory and the inability to immediately convert it into power that has pushed the German political system into a new phase of tension.
For the CDU, the dilemma is not only a matter of seat arithmetic. It is a political test that touches the limits it has set for itself, while for Merz this defeat is turning into a direct test of leadership.