The trajectory of votes for the Socialist Party (PS) and the Democratic Party (PD) after 2013 highlights a trend that politics often tries to overlook: the major parties remain the centers of competition, but the real weight of their electoral base is not as linear as public rhetoric presents it.
The starting point: the 2013 elections
In the 2013 parliamentary elections, around 1 million voters backed the PS-LSI-PSD-PDS coalition and other allied forces. Within that figure, about 730,000 appear to have been direct voters of the PS.
On the other side, around 680,000 voted for the PD-PR-LZHK-PDIU coalition and its allies, while only about 630,000 were direct votes for the PD.
What is included in the calculation
This reading of the data is based on the 2013 result and on a distinction between the vote for the main parties and that of their allies. This calculation also includes Socialist and Democratic voters who may have produced invalid ballots because of confusion over the ballot paper.
This means the comparison does not stop simply at the coalitions, but at the real strength of the two main parties in relation to their direct electoral base.
After 2013, smaller allies lost weight in the balance
According to this reading, after 2013 small parties such as the LSI, PR, PSD, PDIU and others were no longer decisive in the balance of power to the same extent as before.
This is a politically important detail because it partly undermines the argument often used by the main camps that the fate of the contest necessarily depends on small satellite parties. At least in this approach, the weight has shifted more toward the PS core, the PD core, and the segment that refuses to vote.
The rise in non-voters is changing the political map
Another development highlighted over the years is the marked increase in residents who do not vote for any party. This trend weakens the classic reading of the contest solely as a clash between the PS and the PD.
In political terms, the rise in abstention raises questions about real representation, the legitimacy of mandates, and the parties’ ability to maintain a connection with the electorate. This is an area that official party rhetoric usually leaves in the shadows, even though it has a direct impact on the electoral balance.
If this data framework is taken as a reference point, the trajectory of PS and PD votes is read not only through the final result, but through how stable their pure party vote remains.
In the end, the picture that emerges is less triumphalist than the political messages of the day: the major parties continue to dominate the scene, but beyond them the space of distrust and non-voting is also expanding.