One of the toughest political tests in Germany is producing a stark signal for the traditional parties. Initial exit polls in Saxony-Anhalt put Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 44.5%, while the CDU, politically associated with Friedrich Merz’s line, is projected to fall to 18.5%, almost halving its result from 2021.
AfD emerges as the leading force by a wide margin
According to ARD’s first projection for the state election, AfD is leading with 44.5%, far ahead of its rivals and turning the race into a heavy blow for the traditional conservative camp.
The result so far puts the far-right party in a position that until recently had been considered difficult to imagine in a German state: close to holding decisive weight in the formation of local power.
The CDU’s decline deepens the crisis of the traditional parties
The CDU is projected to win 18.5%, a sharp drop compared with the 2021 election. Based on these figures, the party loses nearly half of its previous political strength in this state.
Other parties are also below the 10% threshold: The Left with 9.5%, the Greens with 9%, and the SPD with 8%. Movements for these parties appear more limited, in a landscape where the main blow appears to fall on the CDU.
Seat calculations: the majority remains a fine line
In the seat projection, the exit poll gives AfD 39 seats, the CDU 16, The Left 8, the Greens 7, the SPD 7, and BSW 5.
A majority in the local parliament requires at least 42 of the 83 seats. This means the key question of the evening is not only AfD’s victory, but whether this force does or does not manage to cross the threshold that would give it the possibility to govern with more direct control.
Comparison with 2021 shows a sharp shift
Compared with the previous election in the same state, AfD has almost doubled its percentage, with an increase of 23.7 points. On the other side, the CDU loses 18.6 points, a contraction that makes the result politically severe.
The losses of the other parties are clearly smaller: The Left records minus 1.5 points, while the SPD is down 0.4 points. This makes it even clearer that the biggest electoral shift has been channelled toward the far right.
An unusual precedent for German politics
According to the data so far, this is the first time a far-right party has come this close to forming a government in a German state.
Pre-vote polls had put AfD at around 40%. The first result of 44.5% pushes that scenario even further and turns Saxony-Anhalt into a major test of how the German electorate is responding to the traditional parties.
The figures remain at the projection level, and the final result will be decisive for the seat calculations.
Even so, the political signal coming out of Saxony-Anhalt is already clear: the far right is gaining ground at a pace that the old parties are not managing to stop.